Yang Cheng：China’s westward strategy not part of Central Asia’s ‘Great Game’

Source：GLOBAL TIMES

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《GLOBAL TIMES》：China’s westward strategy not part of Central Asia’s ‘Great Game’

Yang Cheng

Since the new century, any discussions about Central Asian affairs in the international community have always been stereotyped as the "Great Game." Analysts are prone to view the current Central Asian power configuration as a new geopolitical game with an increased number of players.

Andrei A. Kazantsev, director of the Analytical Center of Moscow State Institute of International Relations, predicted five possible scenarios for the development in this region in 100 years, the most likely of which was that China would rule Central Asia, given China's current powerful position.

In Kazantsev's vision, the main reason for China's increasing influence in the region is the comparatively declining influence of other powers, such as weakening US influence due to the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan, prolonged economic crisis in Europe and political passivity in Russia.

Similar views have been prevailing among international intellectuals, the think-tank sphere as well as decision-making bodies. An imagined image of an aggressive China dedicated to its "marching west" strategy is seemingly dominating other countries' China policy agendas.

The core logic lies in the following train of thought. First of all, China's Eurasian policies in 2013, especially the notion of the Silk Road economic belt, indicate that China is carrying out a "westward strategy."

Second, the "marching west" strategy is a set of arrangements that are aggressive and hard-hitting and aimed at balancing the "rebalancing strategy" of the US in the Asia-Pacific region.

Third, the Silk Road economic belt is in fact aimed at geopolitical purposes under the disguise of economic cooperation. It is paving the way for China to redefine its sphere of influence and then rise as a global power.

Fourth, China's new Eurasia diplomacy poses threats to other powers' integration projects such as Russia's Eurasian Union, the New Silk Road Strategy of the US, EU's strategy toward Central Asia, and Japan's "arc of freedom and prosperity" strategy.

Last, other powers, especially Russia, should reconsider its power structure in Eurasia and redefine ties with the US, Europe and Japan based on their common concerns toward a rising China.

The negative influence caused by this line of thought based on false information and misperceptions is continuing. But the problem is, this so-called "marching west" was conceived by scholars dedicated to non-Eurasia studies and do not reflect the official stance of China.

Historically, in the centuries-long competition between sea power and land power, there has been no record of winning by land powers in Eurasia. Will China's policymakers dare to reverse this trend? Given the purchasing power and the overall economic scale of nations bordering China's west, will siding with countries on its western border be enough to counterbalance international mechanisms such as the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership?

Obviously, the answers to the above questions are no.

Yet this biased thinking reflects the concern of the outside world, especially the West, toward the fact that China is gradually changing the world, while they deliberately neglect the cooperativeness and inclusiveness of China's neighboring diplomacy as a whole.

China's new Eurasia initiative is by no means trying to replace other Asian systems. Rather, a new situation may emerge. China's domestic and foreign policies will work together: the opening of the seas in China's east and south, the integration of inner China land from east to west, and a westward integration system that links both the sea and the continent with Russia and Central Asia as the pillar.

As a result, the integration process that involves Central Asian states will be part of the mega Eurasian integration course that stretches from the EU to East Asia. By this way Central Asia will get closer to not only China but the whole world.

Nonetheless, the key is whether the outside world can have a correct understanding of China's Eurasia initiative and form new cooperation consensus and mechanisms. For China, the task is to win credibility from the whole world.

The author is deputy director of the Center for Russian Studies, School of Advanced International and Area Studies, East China Normal University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn